ONLINE EXCLUSIVE

ASCRS News
May 2024

Highlighting the importance of advocacy and political involvement for ASCRS members, longtime political observer and campaign expert Charlie Cook was this year’s guest speaker at the ASCRS Government Relations symposium during the 2024 ASCRS Annual Meeting. He discussed politics and the upcoming election and took questions from the audience. 

In a lot of sectors, like elements of the corporate world or labor unions, it’s easy to know which legislators are on your side and which are not, he said. For healthcare in general, and ASCRS in particular, “It’s more difficult. It depends on the issue or the member. That’s why it’s important to have a strong government relations team and government relations committee,” he said, adding that these ASCRS professionals have the knowledge and experience to help figure out who helps us and who hurts us on the issues important to ASCRS members. 

Mr. Cook has been involved in politics for 52 years, and he noted the stark contrast between the political atmosphere now compared to when he first got involved. It bears no resemblance now to what it was like in those days, he said. 

“My practice has always been to not talk about whatever my personal political views are because I see my job as calling balls and strikes,” he said, noting that he generally just tries to comment on who’s more likely to win and why. 

Mr. Cook went on to the discuss the 2024 election and the amount of work it will take for President Biden to get the votes he needs to win the presidency. He looked back at past elections that were very close. In 2020, he noted that President Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, but the margin was fewer than 126,000 votes in a few states.

If you look at a cross section of Americans, he said that you’ll get some people who will identify with a certain party and will vote for their party only. These people are more likely not to vote than vote for the other side. For each party, there are high floors and lower ceilings. Things are not as volatile as they used to be, he said. He also noted that now, as we get close to the election, it’s important to not be obsessing over national polls because that’s not the right index to use. 

Mr. Cook also commented on the difference between open elections with no incumbent versus when an incumbent is running. When there is an incumbent, it’s basically referendum up or down on the president, he said. In this election, it’s a lot more about Joe Biden than it is about Donald Trump, he said. He also noted that this will be the first election since 1892 that we’ve had back-to-back presidents facing off against each other.

Turning to the U.S. Senate, Mr. Cook pointed out that the map is very difficult for Democrats. There are 34 seats up in 2024, of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. With the retirement of Joe Manchin in West Virginia, that seat is almost certain to flip to the Republicans. Democrats will have to “run the table” to maintain their hold on the Senate. Although it’s possible Democrats could prevail, given the tough map, most pundits see the Senate as likely to flip to the Republicans.

It will be important to watch the House [of Representatives], he said, because this is where Democrats have a better shot to make gains to have a firewall against a Trump presidency. Given the large number of retirements in the House by Republican members, including many physicians who are currently serving, Republicans will be forced to defend open seats and several seats in districts won by President Biden in 2020. According to Mr. Cook, the House is very likely to flip to the Democrats.

Following his presentation, Mr. Cook took questions from the audience. Facilitated by Parag Parekh, MD, Chair of the ASCRS Government Relations Committee, attendees asked about specific congressional races, the impact of third-party candidates, and what role healthcare issues will play in the election. 

Mr. Cook pointed out that Congress can make doctors’ lives easier or more difficult, so it’s important to pay attention to what they are doing. Dr. Parekh pointed out how important it is for ASCRS members to stay informed, to speak with their legislators and build relationships with them. “Our members are our best advocates,” he said. “Be sure to stay involved, to read the ASCRS Washington Watch Weekly, and give to our political action committee, eyePAC, so we can continue to fight for you in Washington,” he told attendees.